Logical Fallacies (III)
Cause-Correlation (The Bus 8.11)
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ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED (4.5) 9 October 2023
The Stop
Logical fallacies are arguments built on false reasoning. Initially, they might appear true - and can be persuasive. Consequently, they are often used in rhetoric to encourage people to think a certain way or believe certain things, and - as they usually appeal to emotions - can be very effective. However, fallacious arguments are built on flawed reasoning that is exposed when logic is applied. There are many types of logical fallacies, and philosophers as far back as Aristotle have recognised as essential the need to detect and avoid them - including ones such as the cause-correlation fallacy.1
When two events occur together, it is sometimes difficult to determine whether one event caused the other or whether their simultaneous occurrence is merely coincidental. The cause-correlation fallacy occurs when a causal connection is illegitimately inferred between two events because either both events occur together, or one event regularly proceeds the other.
For example, there appears to be a strong correlation between ice cream sales and shark attacks: when ice cream sales increase, shark attacks also increase. However, even though they are correlated, it is highly unlikely that eating more ice cream causes more shark attacks and to believe this is true is fallacious. Applying reason leads to the more likely explanation that both events are caused by a third factor which, in this case, is hot weather. In hot weather people are more likely to eat ice cream and go swimming, thus increasing both ice cream sales and - unfortunately - increasing the likelihood of encountering sharks.
Sometimes cause-correlation fallacies are easy to recognise: ‘it rained after I watered my lawn, therefore watering my lawn causes rain,’ or ‘we won our football game when I was wearing these socks, so the socks must have caused our win’ - neither of which would be reasonably considered true. However, sometimes the fallacy is more difficult to recognise. For example, a survey revealed that ‘teens who made more than 15 phone calls and sent more than 15 text messages a day, slept poorly and had more careless lifestyles compared to those who made less than five of each per day.’ While this may be true, the amount of phone calls made and text messages sent is not necessarily the cause for lack of sleep and careless lifestyles. In fact, it’s possible that they aren’t the cause but the effect of such a lifestyle: if I’m tired and can’t sleep, I might as well call or text. Only through further evidence and data can a true determination of the relationship be made.
To avoid making the cause-correlation fallacy, it is important to be aware of the different possible explanations for a given correlation. Correlation does not automatically equal causation and non-causal explanations - such as coincidence - must be ruled out. Also, it’s important to look for other factors which could explain the correlation - often its just simple coincidence. In short, before accepting that a correlation suggests a causal relationship - look for the evidence.
The Detour
Today’s Detour is to In Harmony, a short film (4:32) by Markus Øvre2 that was featured on the Youtube channel Short of the Week. Set in a woodland world where the ‘only form of communication is with music,’ it’s the tale of a little man who ‘attempts to play his rhythmic tunes in order to create a loving bond with someone special.’ It’s hypnotic - and quite cool.
The Recommendation
Today’s Recommendation is Paul Theroux’s The Mosquito Coast (1981). The novel3 tells the story of Allie Fox, a brilliant inventor and stubborn idealist, who uproots his family and leads them on what turns out to be a dangerous quest to find refuge from the consumerism he believes to be taking over education and culture. The novel - told through the perspective of his 14-year-old son, Charlie - is a moving story about family, love, madness and the search for meaning in life, and was praised by the New York Times as ‘a fine entertainment, a gripping adventure story, a remarkable comic portrait of minds and cultures at cross-purposes … [and] an impressively serious act of imagination.’ It’s a good book - and one I plan to revisit in the near future. Let me know what you think!
Remember: You can buy The Mosquito Coast at your local used or new bookshop - or check it out at your local library.
The Sounds
Today’s playlist is a selection of five tracks that have nothing to do with the Stop - they’re just great:4 ‘So Fresh, So Clean’ (Outkast, 2000), ‘Pusherman’ (Curtis Mayfield, 1972), ‘Harder Than You Think’ (Public Enemy, 2007), ‘If I Ruled the World (Imagine That)’ (Nas, 1996) and ‘That Fool Was Me’ (Barry Adamson, 2002). Enjoy!
The Thought
Today’s Thought is from the Pulitzer Prize-winning American writer and political activist, Barbara Kingsolver:5
‘It is the darling of all human errors to assume, without proper testing, that one is the cause of the other.’
If you have a thought on this Thought - or any part of today’s issue - please leave a comment below:
And that’s the end of this Stop - I hope you enjoyed the diversion!
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Until the next Stop …
For a third time, this introduction has been repeated as part of the Logical Fallacies Stops - The Bus 3.1 (which examined the slippery slope fallacy) and The Bus 3.31 (which examined the ad hominem fallacy). Exposure to these devices is an essential part of critical thinking - and right now clear thinking is as important as it’s ever been. There are no sources for today’s Stop - just references I’ve used over the years while teaching. And for more about today’s photo - an edit of a shot I took in July of the amazing 19th century ceiling in the Choir of Carlisle Cathedral - see: Carlisle Cathedral.
The film is a student project produced by Øvre as part of his course of study at UCA Farnham - the galleries of which my wife and I would occasionally visit when we lived in Farnham.
It’s also a movie (1986) starring Harrison Ford, River Phoenix and Helen Mirren.
I love these songs - and these artists. It’s been awhile since they’ve popped up on one of my personal playlists, but over the last couple of weeks they’ve reappeared to my great enjoyment. Of particular note on this list is the Curtis Mayfield track - ‘Pusherman’ is my favourite track by him, not in a small way because of the bass line - it’s exquisite. And the Barry Adamson track is on kissing terms with genius.
I have to confess to have never read any of her books, despite having them recommended by readers I trust and reading great reviews. I need to rectify this oversight and find out more about her, so she might just end up as a Stop in the near future. In the meantime, though, for more information check out: Barbara Kingsolver (Britannica).
Bryan, that was surely one of the weirdest videos you’ve ever shared.